Agricultural Statistics Division

The Agricultural Statistics (AS) Division, Directorate of Economics & Statistics (DES) releases four Advance Estimates (AE) of production of 28 major agricultural crops followed by Final Estimate of 28 major and 3 minor crops of the country, for every agricultural year (July-June). Each of these five estimates are available State-wise and at the National level. The time of release and coverage under each of these estimates are as under: –

• The First Advance Estimates are released in September when Kharif sowing is generally over. These cover only Kharif crops.
• The Second Advance Estimates are released in February next year when rabi sowing is also over. The second advance estimates cover Kharif as well as rabi crops. They take into account firmed up figures on kharif area coverage along with available data on crop cutting experiments for yield assessment of Kharif crops as well as tentative figures on area coverage of rabi crops.
• The Third Advance Estimates incorporate revised data on area coverage for rabi crops and better yield estimates of Kharif crops. These are released in May.
• The Fourth Advance Estimates are released in August. By this time fully firmed up data on the area as well as yield of Kharif crops and rabi crops are expected to be available with the States. As such, Fourth Advance Estimates are expected to be very close to the Final Estimates.
• Final Estimates are released about seven months after the Fourth Advance Estimates in February of the following year. This allows sufficient time for States to take into account even the delayed information while finalizing area and yield estimates of various crops.

The 28 major crops included in Estimates are: – Rice, Wheat, Jowar, Bajra, Maize, Ragi, Barley, Small Millets, Tur (Arhar), Gram, Urad, Moong, lentil, Other Kharif Pulses, Other Rabi Pulses, Groundnut, Rapeseed & Mustard, Soyabean, Nigerseed, Castorseed, Sunflower, Safflower, Linseed, Sesamum, Sugarcane, Cotton, Jute and Mesta. In addition, estimates of 3 minor crops namely Tobacco, Guarseed and Sunhemp are also included in final estimates.

The agricultural estimates at all-India level are prepared on the basis of crop-wise data on area, production and yield furnished by State Governments. For this purpose, the State Governments have designated one of their departments viz. Departments of Agriculture/Land Records or Directorate of Economics & Statistics as State Agricultural Statistics Authority (SASA). SASAs finalize State level estimates on the basis of district-wise data on area, production and yield. At the district level, there is a system of effective collaboration between the officials of SASA and the Revenue Department.

While finalizing all-India level estimates, the crop-wise data on area, production and yield received from State Governments are thoroughly scrutinized on the basis of information from alternative sources on area, production and yield, i.e. inputs received from the Weekly Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) Meeting, forecasts received from Mahalonobis National Crop Forecast Center (MNCFC), New Delhi, reports received from Institute of Economic Growth (IEG), New Delhi and rainfall conditions, previous trends in crop-wise area, production and yield in the respective States, commodity-wise trends in prices, procurements etc.